A prince for Sleeping Beauty
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Horgan on Sleeping Beauty
With the notable exception of David Lewis, most of those writing on the Sleeping Beauty problem have argued that 1/3 is the correct answer. Terence Horgan has provided the clearest account of why, contrary to Lewis, Beauty has evidence against the proposition that the coin comes up heads when she awakens on Monday. In this paper, I argue that Horgan’s proposal fails because it neglects importan...
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I describe in this paper a solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with the consensual emerald case and I also discuss Bostrom's Incubator gedanken. I address then the Sleeping Beauty problem. I argue that the root cause of the flaw in the argument for 1/3 is an erroneous assimilation with a repeated experiment. Lastly, I present an informative variant of the original Sleeping Beauty e...
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The Sleeping Beauty problem is test stone for theories about self-locating belief, i.e. theories about how we should reason when data or theories contain indexical information. Opinion on this problem is split between two camps, those who defend the “1/2 view” and those who advocate the “1/3 view”. I argue that both these positions are mistaken. Instead, I propose a new “hybrid” model, which av...
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Consider vanFraassen’s Judy Benjamin (JB) problem (1981). The terrain is divided into four quadrants defined by Blue (B) and Red (R) territories and Second Company (S) and a headQuarters (Q) areas. These territories and areas define four quadrants, as in Figure 1 (roman script headings). Judy initially believes that there is an equal chance of being in each quadrant. She is then told by a fully...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nature Methods
سال: 2007
ISSN: 1548-7091,1548-7105
DOI: 10.1038/nmeth0107-10